Annual Excess Crude Mortality in Europe during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Historical Trends from 2000 to 2021

COVID-19 represents the greatest health crisis in recent human history. To date, it is still difficult to estimate its impact on mortality. This paper investigates excess crude mortality 27 European countries. The differences between values observed 2020 and 2021 with those predicted by a joinpoint regression model were evaluated. A multi-regression analysis was implemented assess relationship variables Europe experienced marked surprising (S-value > 52) increase during (Δ% = +10.0%, 95% CI: [2.5; 18.7]) +12.1%, [4.3; 21.2]). difference average excesses of Eastern Western countries not (S < 2) had little relevance (ΔE-W −2.4, [−2; 7]) but more pronounced 15, ΔE-W +17.2, [11.0; 23.5]) 2021. Excess increased +65%, [12.6; 118], S 5.9). Evidence has been found for negative linear vaccinations (“2021 + BX4”, “A 58 ± 7, 28” “B −0.65 0.10, 22, Radj2 0.65, [0.38; 0.82]). In light current literature, these findings provide solid evidence substantial role unexpected recorded Europe. have appeared be one main determinants reducing Future research should explore aspects detail.